This Week's Herman Trend Alert

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  The Herman Trend Alert

December 10, 2008

Challenges of Global Workforce Migration

According to the just-released report from the International Organization for Migration (IOM), "people are becoming increasingly mobile. . .to meet the social and economic challenges of globalization". The major factor is their search for employment.

This World Migration Report (WMR) 2008 states "human mobility has become a life choice, driven by disparities in demography, income, and employment opportunities across and within regions". There are more than 200 million international migrants in the world today.

In the last century, the international community decided to allow the free movement of capital, goods, and services. The predictable consequence of that choice is "human mobility on an unprecedented global scale. . .matching the subsequent supply and demand . . . [will remain] a critical challenge".

Within the next 50 years as birth rates fall and working populations age, these developed countries will experience even greater shortages, leaving twice as many people over 60 years of age than children. Demographic trends show that without immigration, the working age population in these countries is expected to decline by 23 percent by 2050.

During this time, the working age population for Africa alone is expected to triple from 408 million in 2005 to 1.12 billion. China and India are likely to account for 40 percent of the global workforce by 2030.

Last month based on a new analysis of data, Saudi Arabia found that "uneducated foreign workers topped the list of criminals"; the Kingdom now restricts immigration to people who are literate. Meanwhile, in the United States, immigration raids on meatpacking plants have led to a company sell-out and bankruptcy.

All of the developed countries of the world have major work to do to determine how much and what kind of immigration they will tolerate. But first, governments must examine the various costs of their actions or be prepared to suffer the consequences.

Our forecast is the developed countries critically needing immigrant labor will further support literacy and numeracy around the world, open their borders, and find ways to protect these required workers. Thus, they will have the people they need to prosper in the future.


© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566 or http://www.hermangroup.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."


WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF...
What would happen if 25% of your top performers left in the next year? According to a recent study from The Corporate Executive Board, that may well happen to you! Turnover costs A LOT, especially when you lose top performers, and it comes right off the bottom line. Let The Herman Group and its team of very experienced consultants help you address your turnover issues right away. We have an impressive track record and stand ready to help you. Call Carol at 336-210-3547 for a no-obligation conference call.

FIND OUT WHAT YOUR EMPLOYEES REALLY THINK AND FEEL
Discover what's really going on in the hearts and minds of your employees. Our InnerViews interviewing service uses SPHRs and PHRs, certified human resource professionals to probe for the information you really need to know. Exit and Stay Interviews, as well as Why-Didn't-You-Take-Our-Offer Interviews. Call Rosalie Catalano at 937-416-7066, or read more at: http://www.hermangroup.com/retentionconnection/exit_interviews.html.

BUSINESS IS PICKING UP
Most employers are unprepared. The recovery will bring a new set of challenges for employers that have been in prolonged contracted mode. They will need more skilled workers or will need now to begin to upskill their current staffs. But organizations can not engage in Strategic Workforce Planning, when they don't know how. That's where The Herman Group can help. We can help you with your "People Review"----large or small---so that you will know who you will need and when you will need them... and we can also guide you to the best sources for the people you will need. For more information, call Joyce at 336-210-3548 or e-mail joyce@hermangroup.com.


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