This Week's Herman Trend Alert

Nail-Painting Robot Coming
to a Salon Near You

 

  The Herman Trend Alert

January 24, 2001

Recession Vulnerability

All the talk about a possible recession may lead employers to adopt strategies that could be disastrous long-term. Short-term thinkers may consider laying off workers in an effort to control costs, placing themselves in an extremely vulnerable position.

Employers currently face serious challenges in attracting and retaining qualified workers. Top talent is scarce and in high demand. Labor shortages plague every industry in an employment condition that is clearly a sellers' market. Competition for competent employees is intense, with recruiters becoming increasingly aggressive.

If employers panic at the thought of a recessionary downturn and begin selective lay offs, their other workers may leave, as well, fearing for their job security. Workers already have a lot of choices of employers, and many are being courted by recruiters already. It won't take much effort on the part of nervous employers to motivate a significant number of their people to accept other employment. Energetic recruiting will continue, so there will be plenty of opportunities for departing employees, even if some companies are reducing their staffing levels. The first employers to take steps to tighten their payrolls will be at-risk for dangerous uncontrolled departures.

The vulnerability is two-fold. First is the immediate exposure. Without enough employees to serve customers, companies will lose business to their competitors. Too much defection by fickle customers will impact cash flow, productivity, profits, and investor confidence.

The second vulnerability is more long-term. Economists suggest that the slow-down that some call a recession is just a temporary slowing of growth. The growth curve is not dropping; it's just moderating. "Reduced growth" is not a sharp economic downturn, just a reduction in the RATE of growth. The underlying economy is strong and will pick up again soon. Employers who reduce staffing levels will find it difficult to recruit replacements for the departed workers. Recruiting costs will be unexpectedly high, threatening the companies' profit potential. Recovery for these employers will be slow, or even impossible.

Employers who retain their people during the slower times that may be ahead will have an advantage, particularly if they invest this slack time in retraining.


© Copyright 1998- by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 1.336.210.3548 or https://hermangroup.com. To sign up, visit https://HermanTrendAlert.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."

HEAR JOYCE SPEAK TOMORROW AT 11:30 AM EDT
Tomorrow morning, Joyce will be a Fireside Chat Speakers at the Brightside Business Women Empowerment Virtual Conference where she will talk about how business women can use the insights from her new, groundbreaking book, EXPERIENCE RULES, to be successful. Register for FREE at https://brightsideglobaltrade.org/women.

GET COACHING FOR YOUR PEOPLE FOR LESS THAN $1/DAY!
Gain access to dozens of coaches for the same low price. Find out more by visiting https://ingomu.com/joyceg

JOYCE IS ON THE RADIO EVERYDAY NOW
To listen to Joyce's TV shows on the radio, simply visit RadioFutures.com. Joyce's show is streaming every day at 3:00PM Pacific Time.

To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: https://hermangroup.com/alert/archive_3-29-2023.html.


Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.

New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.

Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.


Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         


[ Home · About · Products · Resources · Media ]

 

7112 Viridian Lane
Austin, TX 78739
Voice: 336-210-3548
Toll Free in US & Canada: 800-227-3566
E-mail: info@hermangroup.com


  © The Herman Group. All rights reserved.

Web site design by WebEditor Design Services, Inc.