The Herman Trend Alert
July 11, 2018
The Shifting Future of the Workforce Part 1
By 2030, the demand for technological, social and emotional, and higher cognitive skills will actually rise. Workers must adapt, or their jobs will disappear; organizations have even more to lose. It's no secret that automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are fundamentally changing the nature of work. This Herman Trend Alert focuses on McKinsey's recent research on the impact of technology on the economy, business, and society with insights into the coming shifts in demand for workforce skills and how companies will need to transform as well.
McKinsey's Study Worth Considering
They looked at 25 core workplace skills in five sectors (banking and insurance, energy and mining, healthcare, manufacturing, and retail) today and in the future for the United States and five European countries.
Automation: accelerating the shift in workforce skills
McKinsey found technological skills will see the strongest growth in demand. Though they represent the smallest category today, we will see a 55 percent increase; in fact, by 2030 technological skills will represent 17 percent of hours worked---up from 11 percent in 2016. This technological tidal wave will push demand for basic digital skills as well as advanced tech skills like programming. The need for social and emotional skills, including leading others, will increase by 24 percent. At the same time, the overall need for higher cognitive skills will continue to grow at a moderate rate, but demand for skills like creativity will rise sharply.
The demand for some more basic skills will decrease
There will be a declining demand for some, mostly lower complexity skill categories. Lower order cognitive skills, including basic data input and processing, will drop by 15 percent. Demand for physical and manual skills, which include general equipment operation, will also fall, by 14 percent. In spite of this trend, these lower order skills will remain the largest category of workforce skills in 2030 in many countries.
Skill shifts will be different in different sectors
Some examples of these different demands include healthcare having an increasing need for physical skills, while demand for them in manufacturing and other sectors will decline. In the service sectors, we expect to see increasing demand for digital skills, as automation increasingly affects these industries, like the robo-restaurant, Spyce, we covered in our Herman Trend Alert of May 30, 2018 ( "High Tech meets Haute Cuisine").
Stay on top of these shifts to remain gainfully employed
In the developed countries, the worst hit will be low-skilled workers, as we will be using machines for these repetitive tasks. Workers who want to keep their jobs will need to keep up with advancing technology in their fields and remain computer/digital device-literate to ensure that they are valued in the workplace of tomorrow. Nurture your networks, even when you don't need them. Make it a point to watch what's going on in your own industry as well as related ones. Your efforts will be rewarded when there is the inevitable reduction in force (RIF) due to the reorganization that will take place.
Next week, we will feature the shifts that organizations must make to accommodate the changing landscape of work. To read the entire McKinsey study, visit here.
© Copyright 1998-
by The Herman Group, Inc. -- reproduction for publication is encouraged, with the following attribution: From "The Herman Trend Alert," by Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurist. 336-210-3548 or https://hermangroup.com. To sign up, visit https://HermanTrendAlert.com. The Herman Trend Alert is a trademark of The Herman Group, Inc."
HAPPY ANNIVERSARY TO US!
This week marks the 21st Anniversary of The Herman Trend Alert. We sincerely appreciate your loyalty. We will do our best to continue to earn that loyalty by bringing interesting, thought-provoking news articles to your email box every week.
GIVE YOUR SON OR DAUGHTER THE LEARNING EXPERIENCE OF A LIFETIME
Beginning in September, the Semester at Sea® Fall 2019 Voyage will be visiting 12 cities in 11 countries. In partnership with Colorado State University, Semester at Sea® provides students unique opportunities to interact with their professors and enjoy cultural experiences way beyond typical cruise shore excursions; the in-country field classes and programs will feature person-to-person interactions with nationals. Students earn 12-15 valuable college credits, while they visit 4 continents. Our author Joyce Gioia will be teaching Leadership and Innovation. Lifelong Learners are also welcomed on each voyage. For more information, visit Fall 2019 Voyage for Semester at Sea.
IS YOUR EMPLOYER AN EMPLOYER OF CHOICE®?
We've seen a strong resurgence in interest by employers in being recognized as an Employer of Choice®. Celebrate your employee-centered corporate culture! This coveted award is well worth the effort, yet is not easy to achieve. Download the extensive application at http://www.EmployerOfChoice.com; or for a Word® version, drop a note to Joyce@EmployerOfChoice.com or call Joyce at 336.210.3548.
OUR VERSATILE TRANSLATOR ROCKS
Excellent translation services from English, French, or German into Spanish. Especially well-versed in medicine/pharma and automobile industries. 5-year Bachelor Degree in Translation. Also editing and proofreading of all kinds of Spanish language documents. Flexible rates, depending on number of words, degree of difficulty/technicality, and turnaround. For an instant quote email Mariana Campora Lesti at email@example.com or contact her on SKYPE at marianacampora.
To read this Herman Trend Alert on the web: https://hermangroup.com/alert/archive_2-20-2019.html.
Herman Trend Alerts are produced by the Herman Group, strategic business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and professional speakers.
New subscribers are always welcome. There is no charge for this public service. The Herman Trend Alert is read by over 30,000 people in 90 countries, including other websites and printed periodicals. Click here to sign up for the Herman Trend Alert.
Do you enjoy receiving this weekly e-mail update? Contact us about our co-branded Herman Trend Alert service.
Subscribe or Unsubscribe to weekly Herman Trend Alert
View this week's Herman Trend Alert
Archived Weekly Herman Trend Alerts